85th Academy Awards – My Predictions

So it all comes down to this. After a year of watching movies, debating movies, shitting on movies, overpraising movies, and just generally getting too excited over the medium of film, it all comes down to this. One five to ten hour show where we give little statues that look like the dude from Powder to people who need another ego boost like they need a hole in the head. And, even with another year where the majority of the categories seem set in stone already, it’s still all leading up to an inexplicably exciting night (at least for myself), with minor interruptions for Seth MacFarlane’s harmless, mildly entertaining schtick.

Anyway.

Here are my predictions for who will win and, more importantly, should win, in the major categories at this weekend’s Academy Awards.

Best Picture

Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Amour
Should have been here: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Director

Will win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Could win: Michael Haneke, Amour
Should win: Michael Haneke, Amour
Should have been here: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Could win: No one
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Should have been here: Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Will win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Should have been here: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Will win: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Could win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Should have been here: Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Could win: Sally Field, Lincoln
Should win: Amy Adams, The Master
Should have been here: Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Amour
Could win: Django Unchained
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom
Should have been here: Looper

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Lincoln
Should have been here: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Best Original Score

Will win: Life of Pi
Could win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Anna Karenina
Should have been here: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Original Song

Will win: Skyfall
Could win: Les Miserables
Should win: Ted
Should have been here: This Is 40

Best Animated Feature

Will win: Wreck-It Ralph
Could win: Brave
Should win: Paranorman
Should have been here: From Up on Poppy Hill

Best Documentary Feature

Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could win: The Gatekeepers
Should win: How to Survive a Plague
Should have been here: Indie Game: The Movie

Best Foreign Language Feature

Will win: Amour
Could win: A Royal Affair
Should win: Amour
Should have been here: Once Upon a Time in Anatolia

The Top 30 Films of 2012: #20-11

(20) Safety Not Guaranteed (Colin Trevorrow)

Colin Trevorrow’s debut feature that’s sort of about time-travel (but really about past regrets) succeeds on the strengths of its performances and the tenacity of its spirit. Aubrey Plaza proves that she has more than just snark in her repertoire, giving a surprisingly complex performance, though the film’s breakout performance comes from New Girl‘s Jake M. Johnson, showing more depth than I ever would have guessed he had. Combined with Derek Connolly’s funny and charming (if light) script, and Trevorrow’s spunky direction, they make Safety Not Guaranteed one of 2012’s biggest surprises.

(19) Ruby Sparks (Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris)

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris’s long-awaited follow-up to Little Miss Sunshine definitely had the potential to go off the rails. Based on the trailer, which tells the story of a man’s dream girl coming to life, seemed like more of the same, in line with that previously mentioned, slightly overrated film. Fortunately, thanks to Zoe Kazan’s razor-sharp script, those pitfalls are mostly avoided. It does suffer the same cop-out happy ending as their previous film, but everything that comes before (including a surprisingly brutal scene involving Kazan, Dano, and a typewriter) is too good to ignore.

(18) The Cabin in the Woods (Drew Goddard)

Where most meta-films about genre tend to have at least a little of disdain for the tropes they’re skewering, The Cabin in the Woods is clearly made by a pair of guys (Goddard and Joss Whedon) who love horror films intensely. Part standard slasher flick, part meta commentary on horror movies and our society’s reaction to them, it’s mostly just a fucking great time. Just don’t let anyone spoil it for you.

(17) Cloud Atlas (Andy Wachowski & Lana Wachowski & Tom Tykwer)

I had a lot of problems with the adaptation of David Mitchell’s masterpiece Cloud Atlas. It cuts huge swaths out of the book, including completely changing certain sequences; the performances can fluctuate from storyline to storyline and actor to actor; and the makeup is just bad, oftentimes horrendous. So the fact that it’s still showing up at #17 on my end of the year list should tell you how brilliant the stuff that works is. And at nearly three hours, that is still most of the film. I don’t really want to say much about it, particularly if all you’ve seen is the extended trailer, but I really do think it takes a huge step in reinventing the way we look at what qualifies an “epic” film.

(16) The Deep Blue Sea (Terence Davies)

Terence Davies is a filmmaker I was completely unacquainted with when I decided to check out his most recent film on Netflix, and that’s something that clearly has to change. His adaptation of Terence Rattigan’s play about infidelity and depression during the war is an obvious homage to one of the great unrequited love stories of the 1940s, David Lean’s Brief Encounter, though more based in the sexual and feministic frustrations of the era. It also features the year’s best performance, in Rachel Weisz’s gripping, heartbreaking portrayal of Hester.

(15) Argo (Ben Affleck)

Ben Affleck’s third film shows a talent for making technically perfect, enormously entertaining mainstream cinema (that isn’t superhero related) that I never would have thought him capable of. Yes, the politics of the film are debatable, and certainly should be being discussed much more than this year’s other controversial film, Zero Dark Thirty, but looked at solely as a piece of entertainment, Argo is really fucking hard to dislike. If Affleck could just realize that acting isn’t the route for him, we could be looking at a future master.

(14) Looper (Rian Johnson)

What a great year for time-travel films, huh? Rian Johnson’s third film in an already brilliant and unpredictable filmography is also his best, combine an extremely complicated (but technically sound) time-travel plot with an unexpected but beautiful (and moving) mother-son one. Johnson continues his run at creating incredibly original but realistic environments, this time moving to a totally different (but completely possible) near-future. It’s $30 million budget also proves that you don’t need a lot of money to create some truly astounding (and disgusting) special effects.

(13) Wuthering Heights (Andrea Arnold)

Andrea Arnold’s (Fish Tank) adaptation of Emily Bronte’s classic novel is a bleak, harsh, unrelenting look at the brutal and sometimes sadistic truths of the time and location. Featuring brilliant, naturalistic performances from a pair of newcomers as the leads, Arnold continues her inevitable ascension into the Terrence Malick throne with this tale that focuses on the harshness of nature and the reality of social class in mid 1800s rural England.

(12) How to Survive a Plague (David France)

The second documentary in as many years that takes an unflinching look at the realities of the early days of the AIDS crisis in America, David France’s film differs from 2011’s We Were Here by focusing more on the activists and scientists than the victims. Composed mostly from archival footage from the late 80s and early 90s, Plague perfectly elicits an equal amount of rage, sadness, and ultimately hope in the viewer. Brilliantly capturing the uncertainty and fear that the era, How to Survive a Plague is a testament to the rare (but absolutely real) ability of people to come together and actually affect real change.

(11) Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)

Steven Spielberg has, plain and simple, made his best film since Schindler’s List. It’s obviously anchored by Daniel Day-Lewis’s portrayal of the President, but the real treat of the film is seeing Spielberg try something small for once. When it comes down to it, this is just a film about the passing of a bill, so the fact that it’s as engaging and exciting as it is quite surprising. I also love that so much of the film takes place in tiny back rooms, showing the intricacies of the political process in a way not really examined in film before. Much of this is thanks to Tony Kushner’s script, which never shies away from the complexity, and Janusz Kaminski’s dark, dusty cinematography, a real strength of this film that I don’t think has gotten enough credit. The film’s minor flaws (Williams’ score, Sally Field’s melodramatic, out-of-place performance) aren’t enough to deter the return to form of one of our all-time greats.

The Top 30 Films of 2012: #30-21

Well, it all comes down to this. My top 30 films of 2012 (technically 31, but the cheat is a minor one). I hope you guys enjoy it. When you get past all the forum fighting, Twitter bickering, and comment snarking, the main reason people like myself make these lists is to try to introduce some great films to people who might not otherwise take the time to seek them out. So do yourself a favor, and use this list (and all the other ones you read this season) to get yourself informed on some of the great films from a truly great year in cinema.

(30) Haywire/Magic Mike (Steven Soderbergh)

It was impossible for me to choose between Soderbergh’s two great films this year…so fuck it. I chose ’em both. The beginning of the year brought us one of the most entertaining exercises in stylistic action I’ve seen in a while with Haywire, while the summer months brought us Magic Mike, a “state-of-the-union” type film masquerading as a male stripper comedy. I was disappointed to hear Soderbergh will be supposedly retiring from feature filmmaking to move to television after this year’s Side Effects, but, regardless of where he ends up, he still hasn’t lost a step.

(29) The Avengers (Joss Whedon)

Where The Dark Knight Rises suffered under the weight of too many characters and baddies, Joss Whedon managed to completely circumvent those problems with the spectacularly fun The Avengers, due likely to his television experience. I’m still not sold on the idea of us needing 4-5 superhero films a year, but if that’s the current climate, one can only hope they all be as good as this.

(28) Indie Game: The Movie (Lisanne Pajot & James Swirsky)

What begins as a look at three different independent game developers in three different stages of development eventually evolves into a loving and delicate tribute to the power of imagination and wonder to spur some incredible creativity. Also, for a film funded through Kickstarter, it’s really gorgeously shot.

(27) The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)

I’ll be honest. I’ve seen The Master three times, and I’m still not sure I understand half of what Anderson was trying to say with the film. I’m also not entirely sure whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Regardless, the combination of the stellar direction and flawless performances made it impossible for me to leave it off my list. Expect this one to rise in favor over the years.

(26) Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Yes, the ending devolves into light romantic comedy. No, Jacki Weaver did not deserve an Oscar nomination. But it’s impossible to deny the charm of David O. Russell’s return to the disturbed, fragile minds of his earlier films like Spanking the Monkey and Flirting with Disaster. Plus, we get De Niro in a return to form, Bradley Cooper doing the best work of his career, and Jennifer Lawrence giving a stunningly nuanced performance.

(25) 21 Jump Street (Phil Lord & Chris Miller)

Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s updating of the classic(?) television show is a perfect example of how to correctly pull-off a remake. 21 Jump Street is anchored by a surprisingly sharp, funny script with a lot of heart and a breakout (in a way) performance from Channing Tatum. It may kind of go off the rails near the end, but it still holds up as the funniest film of 2012.

(24) Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)

Now into his mid 60s, Richard Gere proves he hasn’t lost a step with his performance in Nicholas Jarecki’s financial thriller Arbitrage. He gives one of the year’s best performances as billionaire hedge fund manager Robert Miller, a man who seemingly has everything, but is actually hiding some pretty fucked up secrets. He’s surrounded by a great cast, including Tim Roth, Brit Marling, and Susan Sarandon, and while Jarecki’s script was criticized in some circles for focusing too much on the thriller aspects of the film, I found this to be a plus. We already got our financial meltdown film in Margin Call, anyway.

(23) Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)

Martin McDonagh’s follow-up to the classic In Bruges. On one level, it’s a fun, incredibly violent take on the gangster and heist genres. On another level, it’s a critique of every problem those films tend to have. On yet another level, it’s a celebration of screenwriting itself, with all its bumps and bruises. Regardless of how deep you want to go into its layers, Seven Psychopaths is one of the most fun, quotable films of 2012, with Sam Rockwell turning in maybe his craziest (and best) performance yet.

(22) Smashed (James Ponsoldt)

If your entire marriage revolves around getting drunk nearly 24/7, what happens when half of the couple decides to get sober? That’s the question director James Ponsoldt tries to answer in Smashed. The film is anchored by the powerful, nuanced, unexpected, (insert adjective of praise here) performance of Mary-Elizabeth Winstead, but unlike something such as The Sessions, which doesn’t have much to it outside of its performances, Smashed is a full-blown success. It never succumbs to the melodrama that so many alcohol-related films tend to, and it features great supporting performances from Aaron Paul, Nick Offerman and Octavia Spencer.

(21) Dredd (Pete Travis)

Where Sylvester Stallone’s take on the Judge Dredd character was cartoonish and one-dimensional, Pete Travis’s take is realistic and brutal. Karl Urban’s performance as the titular character is harsh and enigmatic, and he’s joined by great secondary characters, particularly Lena Headey’s (Game of Thrones) terrifying villain Ma-Ma. With some of the most gorgeously filmed violence I’ve ever seen, Dredd was one of the biggest surprises of 2012. It was also a box office failure, so do yourself a favor and go rent this immediately.